For all the excitement it generates, the Dublin Racing Festival has a brutal side effect for ante-post punters looking to bet on Cheltenham. While some contenders enhance their reputations at Leopardstown, others see carefully built Festival profiles unravel in the space of a single afternoon, with markets reacting fast and often unforgivingly.
This year’s meeting was no different. Several high-profile Cheltenham hopefuls left Dublin with more questions than answers, and in some cases, their Festival credentials took a significant dent.
Final Demand – Brown Advisory bubble burst?
The biggest shock of the weekend came in the Grade 1 Novice Chase, where Final Demand ran a race that few saw coming. The Willie Mullins-trained novice had been one of the shortest ante-post favourites across the entire Cheltenham Festival, trading as low as 5/4 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase and sent off a heavy odds-on favourite at Leopardstown.
What followed was deeply underwhelming. Final Demand never travelled with his usual authority and ultimately finished third of four, beaten over 12 lengths by stablemate Kaid d’Authie. It was the kind of performance that forces a full reassessment rather than a gentle market tweak.
The reaction was immediate. His Brown Advisory price drifted sharply to around 4/1, reflecting both the shock of the run and the depth of alternatives now emerging in the novice chase division. While it would be dangerous to assume he’s suddenly a bad horse, Leopardstown can be unforgiving on an off day, it’s equally hard to ignore just how little he showed when it mattered most.
Lossiemouth – a missed moment?
Lossiemouth’s form hit is more subtle, but potentially just as significant. At last year’s Cheltenham Festival, she was controversially kept to the Mares’ Hurdle, a race she won, rather than being allowed to take her chance in the Champion Hurdle. That decision always felt like a deferral rather than a conclusion, with many expecting her to be a major player in the championship division this season.
However, her defeat in this year’s Irish Champion Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, where she was beaten by Brighterdaysahead, may have finally closed that door. In a season where the Champion Hurdle picture remains fragile and full of gaps, Lossiemouth failed to seize what looked like a genuine opportunity to stamp her authority.
As a result, the Champion Hurdle now looks an increasingly unlikely target next month, with a return to the Mares’ Hurdle the more probable route once again. That isn’t a slight on her ability, but from a market perspective, it represents a clear form hit in terms of championship ambitions.
Marine Nationale – Champion Chase credentials tested
Marine Nationale arrived at Leopardstown as the reigning Champion Chase winner, but left with his aura slightly dulled after finishing a distant second to Majborough in the Dublin Chase. The margin, 18 lengths, told a stark story, particularly as Majborough answered lingering doubts about his jumping with a slick, confident round.
There are mitigating factors. Marine Nationale was encountering heavy ground for the first time, and his performance suggested conditions played a role in blunting his effectiveness. Cheltenham’s Old Course in March is unlikely to be as testing, and Majborough’s jumping, while impressive here, remains something that could come under pressure in a Championship-speed race.
Still, from a market perspective, the balance of power shifted. Marine Nationale went from solid title-holder to horse with something to prove, and that alone represents a form hit, even if excuses can be made.
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The Dublin Racing Festival doesn’t just identify Cheltenham contenders, it exposes them. For some, it confirms Festival readiness. For others, it forces punters to confront uncomfortable truths about hype, conditions, or misplaced confidence.
By the time Leopardstown fades from view, Cheltenham markets are rarely the same. And for these hopefuls, the road to March suddenly looks a little steeper than it did before the tapes went up in Dublin.