January 2025

Aintree Grand National Betting: Favourite or Outsider?

I remember my first ever winning Grand National bet.

Aldaniti in 1981. I’m not sure if it’s legal, but I was eleven-years-old. To think some of the horses were older than me. Obviously, I didn’t place the bet myself. My Dad must have done the honours and my 50p each-way come up trumps.

I think I won £6.

I probably bought a bag of penny sweets: pink shrimps, bananas, flumps, milk bottles, blackjacks and a quarter of dolly mixture. No wonder I felt sick after that win. Living a life of excess. Like you do at eleven.

It was only in later life I appreciated the story behind the success of both horse and jockey. Bob Champion who had recovered from cancer and Aldaniti who had suffered from chronic leg problems. It was a story which touched the heart and was made into a flim, Champions, starring John Hurt. The musical score composed and conducted by Carl Davis. The start of the film is very moving and it often brings me to tears.

To be fair, I’ve hit a barren spell. In recent years, National winners have been few and far between. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. It’s virtually impossible to draw!

However, I have one question: Is it best to bet on the Grand National favourite or plump (if that’s the right word, sound like something you do with cushions) for the outsider?

Statistically, the favourite ‘must’ have a better chance of winning. I’m trying to tell myself this as I write these words. But on the other side of the coin, if I was a gambling man, there have been a number of outsiders win.

I’m thinking how much money would I like to win.

Should I bet on a horse priced at 1000000/1?

My horse would have three legs, one eye, half a tail and call to the name, Lucky.

Obviously, that is a joke.

His name would be Clip Clop The Cyclops

Over the years there have been 5 winners at 100/1.

1928 – Tiperary Tim

1929 – Gregalach

1947 – Caughoo

1967 – Foinavon

2009 – Mon Mome

Considering there have been at least 175 runnings, that’s about a 3% win rate. However, when you divide it by 5000 horses, the odds are probably horrenous. I really don’t know how many horses have run in the Grand National at odds of 100/1 or more. I have no idea. In fact, I doubt there are many people on the planet who do.

One or two Anoraks (people who obssess over data).

Anyway, perhaps we have learned something, it doesn’t pay to bet over 100/1.

Just saying.

But what about betting on the favourite? Less winnings, but, supposedly, more chance of winning.

2024: I Am Maximus won at odds of 7/1.

In the last 14 runnings, there have been 4 favourites go in. The good old jolly as they call it.

Let’s have a look at the winners:

2010 – Don’t Push It 10/1

2019 – Tiger Roll 4/1

2023 – Corach Rambler 8/1

2024 – I Am Maximus 7/1

Decisions, decisions.

Is it better to think somewhere in the middle? Halfway house and all that.

The average odds of recent winners is 22/1.

That average includes: 10/1, 14/1, 33/1, 66/1, 25/1, 25/1, 33/1, 14/1, 10/1, 4/1, 11/1, 50/1, 8/1 & 7/1.

The form students will tell you to look at the form. The optimist will tell you to bet the outsider. The pesimist will put their stamp on the favourite.

While your old aunt will pick a horse because of its name.

Earth Summit: The Greatest National Horse Ever

earth summitIt sounds a bold claim.

 

You may have one horse on you mind and I know its name. I don’t want to be controversial but the name you are thinking is wrong.

 

I’m sorry, but you’re wrong.

 

It’s not Red Rum. The mighty hero of the Aintree Grand National. The apple of so many eyes: Ginger McCain, Brian Fletcher and Noel Le Mare.

 

Victorious: 1973, 1974 & 1977.

 

The most famous horse to ever set hoof on Aintree’s turf. After ‘Rummy’ won in 1974,  the words of Le Mare echoed magnificence. He had such presence. It could only come from a bygone age. In those days, a gentleman had a way of expressing himself. The problem these days, there are very few gentlemen left.

 

The world is a sadder place for it.

 

I have a horse in mind. However, it isn’t ‘just’ an Aintree winner.

 

Think back to 1998.

 

Not only did this gelding win at Aintree but the most elusive of trebles: including the Welsh and Scottish Grand National.

 

This son of Celtic Cone, a mud-lover like his sire, was amazing and I fear his achievement has gone unnoticed.

 

Earth Summit, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, in the ownership of The Summit Partnership, is, to my knowledge the only horse to win all three Nationals.

 

It should be noted Earth Summit’s ownership:

 

Until 31st December, 1993, Nigel Payne

Until 21st July, 1994, R I Sims

Until Retirement: *The Summit Partnership

(*Headed by Nigel Payne)

 

Let’s take a look at those 3 National Victories:

 

1994 – Scottish Grand National

 

16th April, 1994. The six-year-old, Earth Summit, took to the good ground well and given a beautiful ride by David Bridgwater. The 16/1 shot slipped under the radar carrying 10 stone, he sat handy and led 5 fences out, soon quickened clear, easily. He won by 14-lengths, from Bishop’s Island (7/1C) while Superior Finish (7/1C) third. At this time, he was in the ownership of R I Sims.

 

Win price money: £29,700

 

 

1997 – Welsh Grand National

 

27th December, 1997. The nine-year-old relished the heavy ground in the capable hands of Tom Jenks. Only seven of the fourteen runners completed the 3m 5f (22 fences). The 25/1 shot, led four fences out, and clear from three out, all out. He held the finish of Dom Samourai (12/1), who stayed on well on the flat but held by one and three quarter lengths. Samlee (7/1) finished a gallant third. The Racing Post quote said it all: ‘No other race quite sorts out the men from the boys like this one…he galloped his rivals into the mud.’ This was all the more remarkable after he suffered a near fatal injury to his near fore in the Greenalls Grand National Trial (February, 1996). ‘Twiston-Davis has shown the patience of a saint with him…’

 

Win prize money: £30, 846

 

1998 – Aintree Grand National

 

4th April, 1998. A truly magnificent day for Earth Summit. The ten-year-old gelding, won the greatest steeplechase of them all winning the Martell Grand National over 4m 4f on soft ground. Ridden by Carl Llewellyn, he chased the leaders, hitting the 19th fence before staying on well, ridden last but held all challengers by eleven lengths from Suny Bay (11/1), while Samlee (8/1) finished a distance behind in third. Only six of the thirty-seven runners finished. Earth Summit triumphant at 7/1f.

 

Once again, Earth Summit showed his stamina. ‘This was always going to be an extremely gruelling test…class still told, as it nearly always does…a renowned mudlark, once he had asserted going to the last, there was only going to be one winner.’

 

Win prize money: £212,569       

 

Earth Summit ran his final race in the Welsh Grand National on the 29th December, 1999. In heavy ground he finished ninth.

 

In his career he raced in the following Nationals:

 

Welsh Grand National:

 

1997 – 1st

1998 – PU

1999 – 9th

 

Scottish Grand National:

 

1994 – 1st

 

Aintree Grand National: 

 

1998 – 1st

1999 – 8th

 

Under race rules Earth Summit ran 41 times, achieving 10 wins, 7 seconds and 1 third. His total earnings £372, 566.

 

He only fell once in his career. He was retired in 2000 and given to his lass Marcella Bayliss. He passed away at the age of 17, humanely put down after being diagnosed with cancer in his liver and spleen.

 

An exceptional horse. He loved a test of stamina, a mudlark who revelled in the heaviest going and the only horse to ever win all three Nationals: Welsh, Scottish & Aintree.

 

Earth Summit (1988 – 2005).

Welsh Grand National Winners

Of all the three Nationals, the Welsh is the first on the list for punters. It takes place on the 27th December at Chepstow over 3 miles and 6 ½ furlongs. This Premier Handicap National Hunt steeplechase is the feature of this idiosyncratic left-handed racecourse. With 23 fences it has fewer obstacles than Aintree or Scottish Grand National.

It is open to horses aged four years and older.

Chepstow is the major racecourse in Wales, just one of three tracks including Bangor-on-Dee and the newest of the trio Ffos Las.

Personally, I always remember Native River winning the Welsh Grand National in 2016. He was a classy gelding who went on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup (2018) and achieved total earnings topping £1M. Trained by Colin Tizzard, he won 10 major races in his career. A very consistent horse racing 28 times, unplaced in just 4.

Inaugurated in 1895. It was originally run at Ely Racecourse in Cardiff. However, the last race took place in 1939.

The race was cancelled over the war years, then one meeting at Newport Racecourse before Chepstow in 1948.

Fighting Line (1949) won the first race at Chepstow, ridden by Dick Francis, who would later become an accomplished author.

The date of the race has changed over time. Originally, it took place on Easter Tuesday. It was move to February in 1969 and then to its present schedule of late December in 1979. It is now posted the day after Boxing Day. It is sponsored by bookmakers Coral which is the longest running since 1973.

The quality of runners improved when re-classified as a Premier Handicap in 2022. In fact, it is an important guide for both the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Aintree Grand National.

Last year’s (2024) saw Val Dancer win well for trainer Mel Rowley ridden by Charlie Hammond. The 8/1 shot was ridden clear in the closing stages to beat joint favourite Jubilee Express (6/1). With win prize money of £85,425 and total purse of £150,000 there is much competition.

Is this race a good pointer for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Aintree Grand National?

Winning the Welsh National is no easy feat and only a handful of runners have prevailed at the pinnacle of racing. However, there have been a number of noted victories.

Jenny pitman had a fine record in this race with high-profile winners including:

1982 – Corbiere

1983 – Burrough Hill Lad

1986 – Steersby

These were halcyon days for Pitman who used the Welsh Nation as a springboard for big winners the following season.

Corbiere went on to win the Aintree Grand National in 1983. A triumph which saw her become the first female winner of the most famous steeplechase in the world.

Burrough Hill Lad went on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 1984. Once again, the first woman to train the winner of this renowned race.

Other noted winners of the Welsh National include:

Bindaree – Grand National: 2002, Welsh National: 2003

Silver Birch Welsh National: 2004, Grand National: 2007

Synchronised Welsh National: 2010, Gold Cup: 2012

Truly superb horses.

It was a very sad day when Synchronised fractured his leg in the 2012 Grand National and euthanised.

Looking down the list of Welsh National winners it is like stepping back in time and remembering these special horses.

A few favourites include:

1985 – Run And Skip

Martin Pipe was a training phenomenon and he excelled in the Welsh National. From 1988 – 1993 he was almost unstoppable. Only Reg Akehurst could lower his colours with Cool Ground in 1990.

Martin Pipe Welsh National Winner:

1988 – Bonanza Boy

1989 – Bonanza Boy

1991 – Carvill’s Hill

1992 – Run For Free

1993 – Riverside Boy

2017 – Raz De Maree (16/1)

An exceptional performance from one of two veterans of the race winning at 13. He was followed gallantly by Alfie Spinner (33/1) who was also 13 years young.

The Greatest National Horse:

One horse which deserves particular praise is Nigel Twiston-Davies Earth Summit who won all 3 Nationals.

Scottish National 1994

Welsh National 1997

Grand National 1998

A feat that even the mighty Red Rum couldn’t surmount.

In additional, it is notable that Paul Nichols’ L’Aventure was one of few mares to win (2005), ridden by Leighton Aspell. A noble performance beating the opposition by a distance at odds of 14/1.

To be fair, it is a delight to write this article remembering so many greats of racing.

Scottish Grand National Winners

The emphasis of this website is to detail the Aintree Grand National. However, it is important to remember there are other ‘Nationals’ on the Racing Calender, including both Scottish and Welsh.

The Scottish Grand National is a National Hunt steeplechase which takes place at Ayr Racecourse, Scotland, towards the end of April. This premier handicap is over a distance of almost 4 miles, with 27 fences.

This left-handed turf course has win prize money over £100,000.

It is the Scottish equivalent of the Aintree Grand National.

This race is open to horses aged 5 years and older.

Dating back to 1858, it was originally named the West of Scotland Grand National. It took place in the Lowlands of Scotland.

Similar to the Aintree Grand National, it consisted of 32 jumps, mainly stone walls.

The win prize: £100.

In 1867, the Scottish National moved to Bogside Racecourse, near Irvine, on the coast of the Firth of Clyde in North Ayrshire. It hosted Flat and National Hunt racing on an undulating course. One of the major races was the Bogside Cup.

An interesting point about Bogside. On the 19th July 1957, jockey, Alec Russell rode all six winners on the card [Flat turf]. In fact, he won the last race the previous day at Lanark, to achieve 7 consecutive winners.

The inaugural running of the Scottish National, saw The Elk win for the Duke of Hamilton. In those days, the race was over 3 miles.

The distance increased to 4 miles in 1880.

In 1965, Bogside Racecourse closed, although point-to-point meetings continued until 1994.

The following year, it moved to Ayr Racecourse. African Patrol (1966) won for trainer Robert Fairbairn, ridden by Johnny Leech. The seven-year-old gelding carried 10-7lbs.

You may wonder how many horses have won both Aintree and the Scottish Nationals.

We have to go back to 1922 to see the first horse, Music Hall, trained by Owen Anthony, ridden by Lewis Rees, which ran in the silks of Hugh Kershaw.

Music Hall:

Scottish Grand National (1920)

Aintree Grand National Victory (1922) 24th March

Other horses to complete the double include: Merryman II, Little Polveir and Earth Summit.

The only horse to win both races in the same year is the legendary Red Rum in 1974. A great occasion for trainer Ginger McCain, rider Brian Fletcher and owner Noel Le Mare.

A trio of horses won the Scottish Grand National 3 times:

Couvrefeu – 1911, 1912, 1913

Southern Hero – 1934, 1936, 1939

Queen’s Taste – 1953, 1954, 1956

You have to go back a long way to find the leading jockey who secured 4 wins:

Charlie Cunningham (known as Scotland’s greatest jockey) – Bellman (1881), Wild Meadow (1885), Orcadian (1887) & Deloraine (1889).

In this modern era, with all 3 wins at Ayr Racecourse, Mark Dwyer had great success with Androma (1984, 1985) & Moorcroft Boy (1996).

Moorcroft Boy finished 3rd in the Aintree Grand National in 1994, behind Miinehoma. He retired after his easy win in the Scottish National at odds of 20/1. Amazingly, that day he was 16lb out of the handicap and Dwyer put up 2lb overweight.

Leading trainers with 5 wins:

Neville Crump: Wot No Sun (1949), Merryman II (1959), Arcturus (1968), Salkeld (1980) & Canton (1983)

Merryman II won the Aintree Grand National in 1960 at odds of 13/2f.

Ken Oliver was very successful with 5 wins: Pappageno’s Cottage (1963), The Spaniard (1970), Young Ash Leaf (1971), Fighting Fit (1979) & Cockle Strange (1982).

In the last 50-years, Willsford (1995) was the oldest winner of this race, aged 12.

Let’s take a look at the last decade of Scottish Grand National Winners:

2015 – *Wayward Prince (25/1), Trainer: Hilary Parrott

2016 – *Vicente (14/1), Trainer: Paul Nicholls

2017 – *Vicente (9/1), Trainer: Paul Nicholls

2018 – *Joe Farrell (33/1), Trainer: Rebecca Curtis

2019 – *Takingrisks (25/1), Trainer: Nicky Richards

2020 – No race (COVID 19)

2021 – *Mighty Thunder (8/1), Trainer: Lucinda Russell

2022 – Win My Wings (13/2), Trainer: Christian Williams

2023 – *Kitty’s Light (4/1), Trainer: Christian Williams

2024 – Macdermott (18/1), Trainer: Willie Mullins

* Denotes: Ran in Aintree Grand National at least once.

With the Scottish Grand National following Aintree, there’s always an opportunity for a ‘National horse’ to take its chance. Recent data adds to this point. However, very few horses have won both races.

Red Rum (1974) is the only horse to win both Aintree Grand National & Scottish Grand National in the same year.

20 Years of the Aintree Grand National Winners (2005 – 2025)

If you are reading this article, the 2025 Aintree Grand National may be on the horizon. Perhaps you are interested in placing a bet on the most famous steeplechase of them all. I remember watching my first National bet back in 1981.

Aldaniti and Bob Champion won at odds of 11/1.

The Grand National is probably one of the most famous races, not so much about the performance beyond winning, but the personal story of horse and jockey, who, to put it lightly, had been through the mill. Make no mistake, it take brains and brawn to win this hard race. Not forgetting a good amount of luck, or, at least, no bad luck.

I’m not surprised why most National Hunt jockeys have no teeth!

When you consider the National goes back to 1839, there are many stories, most you never know existed. Stories from the glorious to the downright heartbreaking if not horrendous.

If there is one good thing about this modern era of information and scrutiny, we know most of the fact and understand the stories.

The Aintree Grand National is a race of stories and of course the stories of winners. Here’s a list of Grand National Winners from the last 20 years:

  • 2024 – I Am Maximus
  • 2023 – Corach Rambler
  • 2022 – Noble Yeats
  • 2021 – Minella Times
  • 2019 – Tiger Roll
  • 2018 – Tiger Roll
  • 2017 – One For Arthur
  • 2016 – Rule The World
  • 2015 – Many Clouds
  • 2014 – Pineau De Re
  • 2013 – Auroras Encore
  • 2012 – Neptune Collonges
  • 2011 – Ballabriggs
  • 2010 – Don’t Push It
  • 2009 – Mon Mome
  • 2008 – Comply or Die
  • 2007 – Silver Birch
  • 2006 – Numbersixvalverde
  • 2005 – Hedgehunter
  • 2004 – Amberleigh House

The winner of the 2025 Grand National is yet to be decided, with current contenders including I am Maximus again, Inothewayurthinkin and Iroko (JP McManus owned).

Let’s take a look at the 20-year period and detail the story of 3 horses from 2002 – 2024. We will tell the story of winners, losers and sadly one horse who lost its life. It is important we don’t neglect to tell the truth even when difficult to read.

2009 – Mon Mome 100/1

It wouldn’t be fitting not to detail a big priced winner. Surely, that is the hope for many punters. Ridden by Liam Treadwell, trained by Venetia Williams, in the ownership of Vida Bingham. The nine-year-old carried a weight of 11:00. To be fair, it was an easy 12-length victory.

2021- Minella Times 11/1

The story here is very much about horse and jockey, if not the latter. Rachael Blackmore is the first woman jockey to win the Aintree Grand National. A historic moment for many reasons. The eight-year-old gelding trained by Henry de Bromhead in the ownership of J.P.McManus.

It took 173 runnings for a woman to ride the National winner.

Some 38 years after Jenny pitman became the first female trainer with Corbiere in 1983.

In truth, this victory reminds me of a quote from Sir Isaac Newton: ‘If I have ever seen further, it is by standing on the shoulder of giants’.

This victory was built on the blood, sweat and tears of her peers.

The fact was female jockeys were discriminated from riding in the National with the mentality it was no race for a woman. It would take the 1975 Sex Discrimination Act to promote equality. In fact, it took until 1977 for the first female rider Charlotte Brew and her mount Barony Fort to get people talking. It should be noted, and it is important to understand, she owned the horse, basically, because no trainer would give her the same opportunity. The pair nearly finished the race. Barony Fort refused the 27th fence.

In 1982, Geraldine Rees, riding Cheers, was the first woman to complete the course, finishing 8th place. He was trained by Martin Blackshaw in the ownership of John Wade. At the time of writing, 2024, there have been just 20 female jockeys to participated in this race. In a world of ‘equality’ progress has been slow.

2023 – Hill Sixteen

Sadly, horse racing, especially the National Hunt, has to broach the difficult question of animal welfare and the loss of horses. To be fair, it is one reason I haven’t bet on the Grand National for many years. Thankfully, the National is a much safer course than back in the day when one of the fences was actually a wall! I respect the debate and it is something we should all consider even if the answers are difficult to find.

Since 2000, there have been 16 horses fatally injured while participating in the Aintree Grand National.

I write those words with sadness.

On the 15th April 2023, Hill Sixteen lost his life when fatally injured falling at the first fence. The 10yo bay gelding was ridden by Ryan Mania, trained by Sandy Thomson, in the ownership of J Fyffe & S Townsend.

Hill Sixteen was sold as a 5yo for £100,000.

The loss of this gelding saw a change to the course with the first fence moved some 55 metres closer to the start. It was considered the speed many horse met the first fence had lead to fatalities. Also, reducing the size of the field from 40 to 34.

Thomson said of the changes: ‘It makes sense to me.’

Hill Sixteen had jumped 398 hurdles and fences in 27 races at 15 different racecourses over four years and he never fell once.

His death was met with empathy and floods of bile and hatred.

Sadly, Hill Sixteen had broken his neck.

Thomson said: ‘The screens were up around him and he was covered in a sheet. I just got down beside him and stroked his neck and thanked him for everything he’d done for us. I said sorry. ‘

‘He was a special horse to everyone here.’